10 Answers to Questions About the Bear Market
2022 has been historically difficult for investors so far, and it’s likely you have questions. We’re here to answer some of the most common questions we’re hearing nowadays.
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[post_content] => 2022 has been historically difficult for investors so far, and it’s likely you have questions. We’re here to answer some of the most common questions we’re hearing nowadays.
Feel free to talk with your advisor about any of these topics – or if you have other questions not addressed here.
1) Just how bad has this year been?
There’s no way to sugar coat things – 2022 has been a rough year. Bonds historically have done well when stocks don’t, but this year that isn’t happening. In fact, the five previous times the S&P 500 lost 10% or more for the year, bonds (as measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index) gained every time, up 7.7% on average.
With the S&P 500 price index down 22.5% for the year and bonds down 13.8%, only 2008 was a worse year for a 60/40 portfolio (with 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds).
2) My bonds are down a lot. How bad has it been?
Yields have soared this year on higher inflation expectations and a hawkish Federal Reserve. As a result, bonds have been performing poorly.. Yields and bond prices historically trade inversely.
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is currently down nearly 14% for the year, far and away the worst year historically (since 1976). To put things in perspective, it had never been down two years in a row (which will likely happen this year) and the previous worst year was a 2.9% drop in 1994.
3) Why shouldn’t I just sell everything right now?
Stocks historically haven’t done very well the first few quarters of a midterm year, but they do quite well once the midterm election is over. In fact, since World War II, the S&P 500 has been higher a year after the midterm election every single time, up 14.1% on average. Much better times could be coming – and soon.
One final reason to remain optimistic and not sell now is that data shows stocks have historically tended to perform well after a midterm year low. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained more than 32% on average off the lows and has never been lower a year later. The June lows are not far away from current levels. Should new lows be made, it could be another positive for investors going out a year or more.
4) Should we have seen this trouble coming?
Although the size of the drop in stocks and bonds is surprising, to see some weakness this year wasn’t overly surprising. Some of the worst quarters of the four-year cycle took place during this year. The second year (so this year) under a new President tends to be quite weak as well. The good news is how well stocks historically do the following year under a new President.
5) What should we do now that stocks are in a bear market?
There’s an old saying that the stock market is the only place where when things go on sale, everyone runs out of the store screaming. Things are no doubt on sale and investors with a long enough investment horizon may want to look at this weakness as a potential opportunity.
We continue to think the economy isn’t in a recession (more on this below), so that likely means stocks won’t fall significantly from here. Historically, the bear markets that took place without a recession showed stocks falling about 24% on average. In fact, only once did stocks fall more than 30% without a recession and that was the 1987 crash. More near-term pain is always possible, but a major low could be quite near.
6) What could happen once the bear market is over?
No one knows when this current bear will end (we do think it will be fairly soon), but you should be open to significant gains coming off the bear lows.
7) Is the Fed going to break something? Or when will they stop hiking?
The Fed has made it very clear that they would be okay with some pain (think a mild recession) to put a lid on inflation. There is no easy answer here, but Chairman Powell knows history and knows that the Fed didn’t increase rates enough or keep them high for long enough in the 1970s, which led to massive inflation in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s. The truth is the Fed might break something and that might be part of their plan.
Looking back at the previous eight rate hike cycles shows that the Fed hikes until rates get above the headline CPI number. With inflation still running at 8.3% and rates at 3.25%, more hikes could be in the cards. And the Fed’s latest projections suggest we’ll see at least another 125–150 basis points of rate hikes.
8) Will inflation ever come back down?
The recent CPI number was disappointing, showing prices for many goods and services at the consumer level were increasing more than expected. The good news is various other inflation measures are coming back, and quickly, in many cases. For starters, energy prices have fallen and in many cases are lower than before the war started – a good sign. Meanwhile, supply chains are improving, as this survey by the NY Fed shows.
One of the main reasons we are optimistic that inflation could be about to come down quickly is used car prices are rapidly dropping. The recent Manheim Used Car Value Index fell 4% last month, which is one of the largest drops ever. Used cars make up a large part of inflation readings and this should provide a nice tailwind going forward.
9) Aren’t we in a recession right now?
The odds of a recession in 2023 have unquestionably gone up, as the Fed continues to hike rates. But currently, we do not see the economy in a recession. The main reason is the employment backdrop is so strong. More than 3.5 million jobs have been created this year, one of the most ever and not at all recessionary. Additionally, industrial production has been very strong, another important component to the economy. Even consumer spending has remained stubbornly strong amid all the concerns.
Now, there are obvious worries as consumer confidence has been very low (but has been improving with gas prices falling) while manufacturing has slowed, and housing data is tanking due to higher mortgage rates. Currently, we think this is more of a midcycle slowdown versus the start of a recession.
10) What could happen after the midterm elections?
One thing we try to stress on the Carson Investment Research team is not to mix your politics with investing. Many investors didn’t like President Obama and missed out of significant gains, while others didn’t like President Trump and missed out on gains.
Turning to the midterms, we know the party that lost the prior Presidential election is the motivated party and they tend to gain four seats in the Senate and nearly 30 seats in the House. Should this pattern hold again, and the Republicans take both chambers of Congress, this is the very best scenario for stocks. A Democratic President and Republican-controlled Congress has seen the S&P 500 gain more than 16%, on average, during the calendar year. In fact, we saw this in the late 1990s under President Clinton.
What if the Democrats keep control of the Senate? This is about a coin flip by the odds makers and the good news is a Democratic President with a split Congress is also a bullish scenario.
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This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
Bloomberg
U.S. Aggregate Bond Index” formerly known as the “Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index”, and prior to that, “Lehman Aggregate Bond Index,” is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollardenominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).
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[post_content] => Chances are good we've all felt a bit like Rachel on “Friends" when she peruses her first paycheck in bewilderment and says, “Who's FICA? And why's he taking all my money?"
FICA stands for the Federal Insurance Contributions Act, or as most of us know it, Social Security. A portion of your paycheck is deducted as a payroll tax to fund Social Security benefits, including the retirement program it's most commonly associated with.
But that amount doesn't go into an account with your name on it to tap into later. Today's workers are funding today's retirees, with the expectation that when they become future retirees, they in turn will be funded by those future workers.
That's just one of the components of Social Security that is frequently misunderstood. Here are eight questions I often get about Social Security retirement benefits that will help you understand the program and how it affects you and your financial future.
1. At what age can I start taking Social Security retirement benefits?
Although most are eligible to receive Social Security as early as age 62, there are a variety of factors that influence what may be the most optimal claiming strategy for your situation. The difference is in the size of the monthly benefit you will receive if you wait.
For many, age 65 is the magic number they’ve heard when retirement “officially" begins, and that was the minimum age to receive full retirement benefits when the program began. But as our life expectancy has increased — meaning which we will draw benefits for that much longer — so has the age at which we are expected to start taking Social Security. This chart shows how the full retirement age has inched up.
The longer you wait to retire, the bigger your benefit each month and for the duration of the time you receive it. If you’re able to delay collecting benefits until age 70, your monthly amount will increase even more. In fact, every month you wait to file from your full retirement age (currently 67 for those born in 1960 and later) until age 70, your benefit will increase a total of 8% per year. This chart shows how it works for someone whose current full retirement age is 66, demonstrating the bonus you'll reap if you wait.
2. What is my monthly Social Security benefit based on?
The formula is a bit complicated but here are the main parts. First, the Social Security Administration takes your 35 highest earning years as their basis. Then they apply an inflation factor based on the first year they use since, as we know, $10,000 in 1970 wasn't the same as $10,000 today. They will add up those 35 highest years (or fewer if you don't have at least 35 years in the workforce) and divide it by the number of months to determine the average indexed monthly earnings (AIME).
Then, they will apply what's called a “bend" point, designed to even out the system so those who had the least income get the most benefits. It's a little complex, but it's essentially a formula that changes with the national average wage index to ensure someone who doesn't make a lot of income will be protected in the system. This chart shows the bend points used to determine this formula for the past few years, and this video breaks down how it works.
3. As a high-income earner, why am I paying so much in tax when I won't get it all back?
This is a common grievance, given that the collected funds aren't sitting in an account just for you, as discussed. Yet many people don't realize that the amount they pay doesn't rise commensurate with their entire income.
The government has created a Social Security wage cap, currently set at $147,000 for 2022. If your earnings exceed that amount, nothing over it will be taxed for Social Security. Therefore, someone who earns $147,000 and someone who earns $5 million pay the same into the Social Security coffers, according to current law.
So, even though you may not get every dollar back when you collect your benefit, there is a limit on the amount of your wages that are subject to taxes if you earn above the wage limit.
4. If I want to keep working, will it affect my Social Security benefit?
Many workers, particularly those in white collar industries, can keep working past their retirement age either part-time or on a consulting basis. My clients often view retirement as a time when they have more flexibility, yet want to do something that gives them purpose, fulfillment, connection and routine—which often is found in a job.
However, any sort of wages, whether a salary, contract or bonus, is earned income, which could reduce your Social Security benefit. If you are younger than full retirement age and earn more than $19,560—the annual limit for 2022—the Social Security Administration will deduct $1 from your benefit payment for every $2 you earn. In the calendar year before you reach full retirement age, that earnings ceiling bumps up to $51,960 and the amount you are docked goes down to $1 for every $3 you earn. Once you reach full retirement age, earnings of any amount no longer reduce your benefit payment.
The good news is that if your benefit is reduced due to excessive earnings, the money doesn't just evaporate. Instead, the government will recalculate your future payments and increase them to reflect the benefits withheld because of earned income.
Any unearned income, such as that from interest and dividends from your stock portfolio or passive rental income, would not reduce your Social Security benefit—although it could factor into how it's taxed. More on that next.
5. Do I have to pay taxes on Social Security?
Your benefit may be taxed as ordinary income at your regular tax rate, depending on how much other income you are receiving. The government will tabulate your income from all sources, which could be rental income, a pension, or investment income, to determine the portion of your Social Security benefit that will be taxed. The amount of your benefit that could be subject to taxes ranges from 0% to a high of 85%. This article from the Social Security Administrations shows the breakdown by income.
6. What if I started taking a Social Security payment and changed my mind?
If your financial situation changes, you may decide to halt benefits in order to help amp up your future monthly payment. If you are under full retirement age and elected benefits, you can pretend it never even happened for up to 12 months from when you first started receiving benefits by withdrawing your application and paying back the entire amount you already received.
Otherwise, if it has been more than 12 months since you started receiving benefits, you'll need to wait until you reach full retirement age and then request a suspension. You'll then receive credit for each month of the suspension, ultimately boosting your eventual monthly benefit.
7. Will the Social Security fund run out before I receive my benefits?
This is a valid concern many clients have, which becomes clear as you begin to consider demographics: While increasing numbers of retirees are often living longer, there are dwindling numbers of workers contributing to the system that pays out to them. What I tell my clients, based on what we know today, is that as long as people keep paying into the system and the government keeps collecting, Social Security benefits are expected to be fully funded until2034, when they will drop to 77% of scheduled benefits absent any changes.1
However, no one knows what those changes will be, and it's important to plan conservatively for retirement. It's a best practice to stress test portfolios against various events. By stress testing the effect of a Social Security benefit reduction in the context of a holistic financial plan, you can see how well your finances could withstand that shock – either alone or in conjunction with another event.
We consider this a vital exercise as clients approach retirement so they can see where they should make adjustments.
8. Should I depend on Social Security to fund my retirement?
This all depends on the quality of life you want. Above, we've covered issues such as the potential size of your benefit and the solvency of the Social Security fund. But people are often surprised to hear the maximum Social Security benefit they can earn. Even if they were high-wage earners throughout their career and waited until age 70 to collect, the top monthly benefit in 2022 is $4,194 (assuming you retire at age 70).2 Many find that doesn't adequately fund the lifestyle they anticipate or the legacy they hope to leave.
That's why it's wise to start planning ahead for those golden years right now. Consulting with a financial advisor can help you clarify your financial goals and the steps it will take to achieve them. While Social Security will likely be one core piece of your retirement, for most people it shouldn't be their only one.
Have More Questions About Social Security?
Your financial advisor can help answer any questions you might have about retirement and Social Security.
Don’t have a financial advisor? Give us a call today to get paired with a qualified fiduciary financial advisor in your area.
This blog is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific legal, tax, or other professional advice. For a comprehensive review of your personal situation, always consult with a tax or legal advisor.
1 Social Security Administration, “Status of the Social Security and Medicare Programs: A Summary of the 2022 Annual Reports” https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html
2 Social Security Administration, “Frequently Asked Questions: What is the maximum Social Security retirement benefit payable?” https://faq.ssa.gov/en-us/Topic/article/KA-01897#:~:text=For%20example%2C%20if%20you%20retire,maximum%20benefit%20would%20be%20%244%2C194
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[post_content] => By Kevin Engbers
There is a lot happening at Pinnacle Wealth in 2022.
And we understand how the year has been for so many of you. Stability, calmness, and peace have not been words of favor.
In response, we put our minds together and decided to launch an event for this fall — and we'd like you to mark your calendars.
Now introducing…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2X0d_YlYyQ
Finding Your Freedom:
Through Chaos and Calm
Date: Thursday, October 20, 2022 at 6:01pm
Location: Riviera | Brandon, SD
Cost: It's on us. Simply RSVP.
We're bringing in Burt White, Carson Wealth's Chief Strategy Officer, as a keynote speaker, a man who I might add, is one of the top-2 speakers I've ever heard in my life in the financial space.
Burt will finish off a night where we have two goals in mind:
1. To discuss where Pinnacle Wealth has been, where we are, and where we're going in the future.
2. To equip you — our friends — with knowledge and confidence when seeking to "Find your Freedom." (Whether the world is in complete chaos or relative calm.)
From here, the instructions are easy.
- Mark your calendars for October 20, 2022 at 6:01pm (sharp!)
- Pre-register for the event by calling our offices at 605-271-6023
- Start thinking about what "freedom" means to you.
Scenario #1: For Surviving Spouses
On a few somber occasions, we have had clients who have passed away before getting to fully enjoy their retirement. And while the earliest that someone can claim off of their worker or spousal benefit is at age 62, there is an exception for surviving spouses to claim a widower benefit as early as 60. Like a spousal benefit, the surviving widow is eligible for their deceased spouse’s Full Retirement Age amount. Claiming any earlier than Full Retirement Age reduces this amount. However, one unique strategy is that should the surviving spouse also have their own earnings history, claiming off a widower’s benefit could then allow one to delay their own worker’s benefit. Here’s an example to help illustrate.
In this example, by continuing to delay their own worker benefits, the surviving spouse significantly increases their lifetime amounts. Additionally, recognizing the opportunity to claim benefits early using a survivor’s benefit could add extra years of cash flow and tens of thousands of dollars.
Scenario #2: You’re Entering Retirement During a Turbulent Market
You’re ready to retire. You’ve planned well and you have your spending plan all laid out. You’ve even decided to wait before filing for your Social Security benefits – allowing your investments to create an ‘income bridge’ - so that you can maximize your future monthly payment. Like many who are able to retire early, this is an ideal scenario for most retirees and one that we often recommend...in most years. But wait … it’s 2022. The market is down. And your portfolio has dropped 25%. Sometimes life doesn’t quite go according to plan. But that’s okay, it’s not time to panic. After all, the market was built to rebound. We just need to look at other ways to manage until that happens. In this scenario, we might consider taking Social Security earlier than anticipated. Especially for those clients without a cash buffer, access to home equity, or other means of ‘dry powder’, selling investments during a bear market is something we try to avoid. Tapping into your Social Security can provide much needed cash flow and allow your investment portfolio some time to recover. You’ll obviously take a slight hit on your lifetime Social Security benefit, but if that amount is smaller than the potential gain your investments could make over time, it’s a smarter play in the long run.Scenario #3: You Wouldn’t Break Even by Waiting
When a pre-retiree is looking for advice on when to begin claiming Social Security, one common way to compare strategies is to calculate their “break-even” age. That’s essentially the age that they would need to live to in order to make the delay worthwhile. When waiting until age 70 to begin claiming Social Security, most people would need to live into their late-70s or even their early-80s to hit that point. If you have good reason to believe that longevity is not on your side, and you have no spouse or children who would depend on your benefit, you might want to consider claiming your Social Security sooner rather than later. While we never want to bet against our lives, it’s important to be realistic with your situation.Talk to a Professional
Remember that a retirement income plan is a mixture of both financial and non-financial components unique to you. When considering any of these scenarios, insist on working with a Fiduciary advisor who specializes in this field. If you need help finding a financial advisor in your area, we can help. Contact us today. H2 subheadNeed Help With Social Security? Give Us a Call
Social Security can be complicated. Talk to a qualified financial advisor today to get professional advice today. Need help finding a financial advisor in your area? Give us a call today so we can match you with an advisor who will put your needs first. This blog is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific legal, tax, or other professional advice. For a comprehensive review of your personal situation, always consult with a tax or legal advisor. Ryan Yamada is a non-registered associate of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC. [post_title] => Claiming Your Social Security Benefits Early: When It May Not Pay to Wait [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => claiming-your-social-security-benefits-early-when-it-may-not-pay-to-wait [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-09-23 07:34:07 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-09-23 12:34:07 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://carsonhub.wpengine.com/?p=65200 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [4] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 65841 [post_author] => 180652 [post_date] => 2022-09-02 08:30:00 [post_date_gmt] => 2022-09-02 13:30:00 [post_content] => Again, the stock market feels like a wild ride, where volatility has become all too normal. As a financial advisor, I field questions about this frequently, especially during periods like we’ve seen in the first half of 2022. That said, our team approached me with a handful of questions we hear on a regular basis during volatile times. I hope you find this useful!1. What would you tell your anxious friends, family, and clients about the markets?
I typically remind everyone that we’ve been here before and that we need to proceed with a thoughtful and careful approach. Think about how we parent and protect our children. What would you do if a kid on the playground hauls off and hits your kid? My tendency is to allow my strong sense of justice to fuel an overreaction, and it only makes the problem worse. But I’ve learned the hard way that I tend to get better results when I respond thoughtfully, gently and carefully rather than reacting to any situation. A market downturn can feel like a punch in the face. It’s hard not to panic. But with markets, we need to use self-control and respond with facts and cerebral-based choices and not react with our feelings. As a wise client of mine once stated, “Don’t give your feelings authority in your life.” Here are some helpful things to focus on during market turbulence and economic uncertainty: Remember there is nothing new under the sun. Bear markets/recessions have occurred throughout market history on average every 56 months. We’ve been through this before… “but did the market come back?” The simple answer is: yes. Every rolling 15-year period in market history has had a positive return. In fact, the average recoveries after market downturns are significant! Remember you are investing for a future harvest. Imagine planting corn seeds in the Spring. We then experience an extended drought. What do you do? A knee-jerk reaction may be to dig up your seed and try to salvage what you have left for next year. A better response would be to trust that the seed is doing something below the surface even when things feel dry and hopeless. Again, don’t give your feelings authority. Farmers plant in all conditions and all seasons. Why is this? They are planting for a future harvest. They know that most of the seed will grow into a plant that produces 100-fold the old seed. That’s a good investment. But only if they remain patient and steadfast, trust the seed and the process, and allow it to do what it was made to do. Don’t dig up your future harvest by cashing in your investments! Instead, remember what happened historically after market downturns and let the seed do its job through the hard times. Let your financial plan make your asset allocation decisions. This provides a purpose for your investments.2. Can you, in simple terms, explain what exactly is happening with the economy?
No. It’s really complicated, politicized, and hard to determine who is giving facts. Most people have an angle. I think there are simple fixes, but getting simple things accomplished proves to be very difficult. Understanding the fundamentals of markets and taking a long view of market history is very helpful here. Watching the news is not!3. How do we prepare our finances for a recession?
Like insurance, you prepare your finances using the bucket theory BEFORE a bear market, not during it. Assess your investment fields using the bucket theory. I enjoy this analogy and deploy this strategy daily. BUCKET 1: Short-term dollars should be in cash to cover up to two (2) years of non-discretionary expenses. Don’t worry about return on investment OR inflation on these dollars. That’s the job for buckets 2 and 3. Do not invest these dollars into the market! BUCKET 2: Money you’ll need in 2-10 years striving for 4-6% returns. Focus on steady stocks like utility companies, short to medium-term bonds, I Bonds, etc. You can let this money ride the market a little longer than the cash, or respond by moving some of these dollars to fill your short-term bucket if a bear market/recession lasts longer than expected. BUCKET 3: Long-term dollars go in bucket 3 and aren’t needed for 10-plus years. These are the dollars that go up and down the most as they are invested mainly in growth stocks. When markets go down and your portfolio “loses money,” you should not be surprised. Expect it. Have faith in the process. Let the seed to it’s job. Remember, this third bucket has time to recover. If you don’t have 2 years of non-discretionary expenses in cash (what I need to survive) — start saving and setting aside what you can. Give us a call and let’s come up with an efficient plan to make sure this bucket is adequately filled.
4. What should I change with my
financial plan as we potentially enter a bear market?
Markets should not change or guide financial plans. Your financial plan helps us determine the asset allocation between the buckets. You should be able to weather storms, with possible small navigational shifts to stay on course. This is not a time for overhauling or abrupt shifts. Stay true to the path set forth in your plan. I hope these answers are helpful for you as we enter times of volatility. I assure you this: we have been here before and it is not different this time.
____________________
This piece is not intended to provide specific legal, tax, or other professional advice. For a comprehensive review of your personal situation, always consult with a tax or legal advisor.
Asset allocation cannot eliminate the risk of fluctuating prices and uncertain returns.
Ryan Ovenden is not registered with Cetera Advisor Networks LLC.
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[post_content] => 2022 has been historically difficult for investors so far, and it’s likely you have questions. We’re here to answer some of the most common questions we’re hearing nowadays.
Feel free to talk with your advisor about any of these topics – or if you have other questions not addressed here.
1) Just how bad has this year been?
There’s no way to sugar coat things – 2022 has been a rough year. Bonds historically have done well when stocks don’t, but this year that isn’t happening. In fact, the five previous times the S&P 500 lost 10% or more for the year, bonds (as measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index) gained every time, up 7.7% on average. With the S&P 500 price index down 22.5% for the year and bonds down 13.8%, only 2008 was a worse year for a 60/40 portfolio (with 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds).
2) My bonds are down a lot. How bad has it been?
Yields have soared this year on higher inflation expectations and a hawkish Federal Reserve. As a result, bonds have been performing poorly.. Yields and bond prices historically trade inversely. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is currently down nearly 14% for the year, far and away the worst year historically (since 1976). To put things in perspective, it had never been down two years in a row (which will likely happen this year) and the previous worst year was a 2.9% drop in 1994.
3) Why shouldn’t I just sell everything right now?
Stocks historically haven’t done very well the first few quarters of a midterm year, but they do quite well once the midterm election is over. In fact, since World War II, the S&P 500 has been higher a year after the midterm election every single time, up 14.1% on average. Much better times could be coming – and soon.
One final reason to remain optimistic and not sell now is that data shows stocks have historically tended to perform well after a midterm year low. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained more than 32% on average off the lows and has never been lower a year later. The June lows are not far away from current levels. Should new lows be made, it could be another positive for investors going out a year or more.
4) Should we have seen this trouble coming?
Although the size of the drop in stocks and bonds is surprising, to see some weakness this year wasn’t overly surprising. Some of the worst quarters of the four-year cycle took place during this year. The second year (so this year) under a new President tends to be quite weak as well. The good news is how well stocks historically do the following year under a new President.
5) What should we do now that stocks are in a bear market?
There’s an old saying that the stock market is the only place where when things go on sale, everyone runs out of the store screaming. Things are no doubt on sale and investors with a long enough investment horizon may want to look at this weakness as a potential opportunity. We continue to think the economy isn’t in a recession (more on this below), so that likely means stocks won’t fall significantly from here. Historically, the bear markets that took place without a recession showed stocks falling about 24% on average. In fact, only once did stocks fall more than 30% without a recession and that was the 1987 crash. More near-term pain is always possible, but a major low could be quite near.
6) What could happen once the bear market is over?
No one knows when this current bear will end (we do think it will be fairly soon), but you should be open to significant gains coming off the bear lows.
7) Is the Fed going to break something? Or when will they stop hiking?
The Fed has made it very clear that they would be okay with some pain (think a mild recession) to put a lid on inflation. There is no easy answer here, but Chairman Powell knows history and knows that the Fed didn’t increase rates enough or keep them high for long enough in the 1970s, which led to massive inflation in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s. The truth is the Fed might break something and that might be part of their plan. Looking back at the previous eight rate hike cycles shows that the Fed hikes until rates get above the headline CPI number. With inflation still running at 8.3% and rates at 3.25%, more hikes could be in the cards. And the Fed’s latest projections suggest we’ll see at least another 125–150 basis points of rate hikes.
8) Will inflation ever come back down?
The recent CPI number was disappointing, showing prices for many goods and services at the consumer level were increasing more than expected. The good news is various other inflation measures are coming back, and quickly, in many cases. For starters, energy prices have fallen and in many cases are lower than before the war started – a good sign. Meanwhile, supply chains are improving, as this survey by the NY Fed shows.
One of the main reasons we are optimistic that inflation could be about to come down quickly is used car prices are rapidly dropping. The recent Manheim Used Car Value Index fell 4% last month, which is one of the largest drops ever. Used cars make up a large part of inflation readings and this should provide a nice tailwind going forward.
9) Aren’t we in a recession right now?
The odds of a recession in 2023 have unquestionably gone up, as the Fed continues to hike rates. But currently, we do not see the economy in a recession. The main reason is the employment backdrop is so strong. More than 3.5 million jobs have been created this year, one of the most ever and not at all recessionary. Additionally, industrial production has been very strong, another important component to the economy. Even consumer spending has remained stubbornly strong amid all the concerns. Now, there are obvious worries as consumer confidence has been very low (but has been improving with gas prices falling) while manufacturing has slowed, and housing data is tanking due to higher mortgage rates. Currently, we think this is more of a midcycle slowdown versus the start of a recession.10) What could happen after the midterm elections?
One thing we try to stress on the Carson Investment Research team is not to mix your politics with investing. Many investors didn’t like President Obama and missed out of significant gains, while others didn’t like President Trump and missed out on gains. Turning to the midterms, we know the party that lost the prior Presidential election is the motivated party and they tend to gain four seats in the Senate and nearly 30 seats in the House. Should this pattern hold again, and the Republicans take both chambers of Congress, this is the very best scenario for stocks. A Democratic President and Republican-controlled Congress has seen the S&P 500 gain more than 16%, on average, during the calendar year. In fact, we saw this in the late 1990s under President Clinton. What if the Democrats keep control of the Senate? This is about a coin flip by the odds makers and the good news is a Democratic President with a split Congress is also a bullish scenario. Schedule a Conversation This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index” formerly known as the “Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index”, and prior to that, “Lehman Aggregate Bond Index,” is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollardenominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency). [post_title] => 10 Answers to Questions About the Bear Market [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => 10-answers-to-questions-about-the-bear-market [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-09-30 10:47:27 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-09-30 15:47:27 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://carsonhub.wpengine.com/?p=65284 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [comment_count] => 0 [current_comment] => -1 [found_posts] => 402 [max_num_pages] => 81 [max_num_comment_pages] => 0 [is_single] => [is_preview] => [is_page] => [is_archive] => [is_date] => [is_year] => [is_month] => [is_day] => [is_time] => [is_author] => [is_category] => [is_tag] => [is_tax] => [is_search] => [is_feed] => [is_comment_feed] => [is_trackback] => [is_home] => 1 [is_privacy_policy] => [is_404] => [is_embed] => [is_paged] => [is_admin] => [is_attachment] => [is_singular] => [is_robots] => [is_favicon] => [is_posts_page] => [is_post_type_archive] => [query_vars_hash:WP_Query:private] => 6b5c18c1252b6c6a9f5f8613c74e0017 [query_vars_changed:WP_Query:private] => [thumbnails_cached] => [stopwords:WP_Query:private] => [compat_fields:WP_Query:private] => Array ( [0] => query_vars_hash [1] => query_vars_changed ) [compat_methods:WP_Query:private] => Array ( [0] => init_query_flags [1] => parse_tax_query ) [tribe_is_event] => [tribe_is_multi_posttype] => [tribe_is_event_category] => [tribe_is_event_venue] => [tribe_is_event_organizer] => [tribe_is_event_query] => [tribe_is_past] => )Your Most Common Social Security Questions Answered
Posted on September 28, 2022
Join Us on October 20, 2022 for Finding Your Freedom: Through Chaos and Calm
Posted on September 22, 2022
Claiming Your Social Security Benefits Early: When It May Not Pay to Wait
Posted on September 8, 2022
How To Respond When Markets Are Going Wild
Posted on September 2, 2022
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[post_content] => Determining what age to begin claiming your Social Security benefit can be a big decision. Do you claim early at age 62? Take it at your full retirement age? Or delay until age 70? There are a wide variety of factors that can go into your final decision, and you should always consult with a qualified professional first. We put together a few charts to help you start that conversation.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_content] => Medicare can be a confusing topic for many. You can't simply sign up anytime you want – and your enrollment timeframe can depend on a variety of factors. To help you figure out when your eligibility begins, we have put together the following flowchart.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_content] => Trillions of dollars will soon transfer from the Silent Generation and baby boomers to their adult children in what financial experts are calling “The Great Wealth Transfer.”
Are you one of the people expecting an inheritance in this historic transfer of wealth? Have you thought about the implications of receiving a tidy sum as a beneficiary?
Get ready and informed for your role as a beneficiary.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_content] => The financial world is full of industry jargon and unfamiliar language that the average consumer may struggle to understand. This can be especially distressing during times of volatility, when we're all grappling for answers.
In this guide, we've broken down some of the most common phrases you might be hearing and reading to help you understand what's really being said.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_content] => Gifting to your loved ones now or posthumously each carries their own positives and negatives as they relate to your estate plan, taxes, your goals and your legacy.
As you explore your options, refer to this guide. It offers a checklist, questions to ask your advisor and a conversation outline to help you communicate your wishes to your loved ones.
Download the checklist today to get started.
[post_title] => A Guide to Gifting to Your Heirs
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[post_content] => Determining what age to begin claiming your Social Security benefit can be a big decision. Do you claim early at age 62? Take it at your full retirement age? Or delay until age 70? There are a wide variety of factors that can go into your final decision, and you should always consult with a qualified professional first. We put together a few charts to help you start that conversation.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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Resources
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When Should I Start Claiming Social Security?
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[post_content] => Stocks had another rough week. The S&P 500 flirted with the June lows and swung back into bear market territory. Investors are worried about inflation, the Fed, the economy, the Russia-Ukraine war, among other market challenges.
- The market is experiencing peak bearishness.
- This coincides with peak hawkishness from the Federal Reserve, as it projects more interest rate hikes.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns that putting inflation behind us may not be painless.
- A down swing in inflation could prompt the Fed to pause.
The Fed is strongly committed to bringing inflation back down, and Fed members believe that is the key to sustaining a healthy economy and labor market over the long term. However, they also believe there is no painless way to do it, and that was a big takeaway from the meeting. It’s worth quoting Fed Chair Powell in full:
“We’re never going to say that there are too many people working, but the real point is that people are really suffering from inflation. If we want another period of a very strong labor market, we have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t.”
This came across in the Fed’s latest economic projections. It slashed estimates of 2022 GDP growth from 1.7% to 0.2%, and for 2023, from 1.7% to 1.2%. The Fed now expects unemployment to peak at 4.4% in 2023, up from the June projection of 3.9% (the rate is currently 3.7%). That translates to about 1.2 million more people losing their jobs.
Up until June, central bankers were clearly hoping to get away with small upticks in the unemployment rate, i.e., a “soft landing.” No longer. The latest projections basically amount to a recession, although perhaps, a mild one. The problem is once unemployment starts to rise, it’s not exactly easy to cap it at a particular number.
Are There Any Positives At All?
Powell did lay out a scenario for a soft landing. It’s a challenging path, but not implausible in our view.
- The labor market is currently imbalanced, with demand outrunning supply. But job vacancies (representing demand) are at such a high level that they could potentially fall without much of an increase in unemployment. However, this would be a big break from what we’ve seen in the past, as falling vacancies have typically been associated with more layoffs. Also, workers quit their jobs at a much higher rate after the pandemic (for better-paying jobs), but that’s slowing down now. If this continues, it should also ease the supply-demand imbalance and associated wage pressures.
- Inflation expectations, both amongst consumers and market participants, have been well anchored. That means there’s no expectations-related inflation spiral. This occurs when people expect higher prices in the future, so they buy now to get ahead of inflation and, in turn, drive up prices.
- The current inflation has been partly caused by a series of supply shocks, beginning with the pandemic and the economic reopening, and amplified by the Russia-Ukraine war. These weren’t present in prior business cycles. Of course, the Fed expected to see supply-side healing by now, but it hasn’t happened yet.
Of course, this assumes there are no more shocks, such as the Russia-Ukraine war presented. That really is the key, as a convincing deceleration in prices is required for the Fed to pivot away from its current aggressive stance.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
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[post_content] => The popular Green Day song titled “Wake Me Up When September Ends” feels quite appropriate given the recent market volatility. In fact, the S&P 500 has now dropped at least 3% for three of the past four weeks. As we’ve noted in this commentary, stocks tend to be quite volatile and potentially weak in September, and that is playing out once again in 2022.
- It’s been another volatile September. We’ve seen this before, and it may not be over yet.
- We expect there’s more room for interest rates to rise, especially if core inflation remains high.
- The Fed is likely to raise interest rates by 0.75% in September, but the key will be how far the Fed will go.
- Economic indicators, including retail sales, manufacturing, and unemployment claims, do not point toward a recession.
Interest Rates Could Keep Rising If Inflation Stays High
The August CPI report was not pretty. The headline number came in at 0.1%, pulled down by gas prices but higher than an expected -0.1% reading. The problem was core CPI, excluding food and energy, was 0.6%, twice what was expected. Tobacco, new vehicles, vehicle repairs, dental services, and hospital services all came in hotter than expected. Shelter costs continued to remain strong, while pandemic-impacted goods and services, including used/new cars, apparel, airfares, hotels, and furnishings, did not exert as much of a deflationary force as was expected by this time.
There were still some positives. For starters, CPI likely peaked in June at more than 9% year-over-year and fell to 8.3% in August. It should continue to trend lower. We have seen huge drops in prices paid in various manufacturing surveys, improvements in time to delivery, and imploding used car prices. All these factors will feed into the official inflation numbers over the next few months.
Nevertheless, markets were quick to react, as a hot inflation report led investors to expect the Fed to continue raising rates at a furious pace. Investors currently anticipate the federal funds rate to be raised as high as 4.2%. The white line in the chart below shows investor expectations for the fed funds rate, while the green line shows the median of the dots, which represent each Fed member’s estimate for where the policy rate will be in 2022 and beyond.
As you can see, the green line for 2022 is well below the white line (investor expectations). The Fed has a meeting this week, and we will be watching how much higher Fed members move their estimates and whether they match the market’s expectations. Our view is the green line will shift higher, close to 4% or more. That is why we’re still cautious on our outlook for interest rates. We believe there’s room for rates across the spectrum to rise — on the back of higher policy rates.
Short-term Treasury interest rates, which are a good approximation of monetary policy, have surged this year and are well above pre-crisis levels. After the August inflation report was released, one-year rates rose from 3.70% to 3.92%, while slightly longer-term five-year rates rose from 3.47% to 3.58%. So, they certainly are closer to where policy rates may get to but not quite there yet.
Still No Sign of Recession
Data last week showed consumer spending remains solid, with retail sales rising 0.3% in August. This was mostly driven by auto sales, although spending was strong in various other sectors, including restaurants and building material and supply stores. The only drag was gasoline station purchases, where sales fell 4%, but that was because gas prices fell. If anything, we’re surprised at the strength of retail sales, which mostly comprise spending on goods, even as the country puts COVID in the rearview mirror. Real retail sales, which are adjusted for prices, rose 0.2% in August and are almost 10% above the pre-crisis trend, with no sign of slowdown yet.
Industrial production did slow in August, falling 0.2%. However, this was because of a large pullback in electric power output. The all-important manufacturing sector saw production tick higher by 0.1%, and that overcame a 1.4% decline in motor vehicle and parts production. This is another puzzle for us — supply chains are clearly improving, but vehicle production remains below pre-pandemic levels. This is entirely because auto production is down about 32%, while light vehicle truck production (like SUVs) is back where it was. At the beginning of the year, we expected a pickup in auto production, providing more of a tailwind to the economy.
Finally, though certainly not the least important, unemployment claims continue to fall and remain well below pre-crisis levels. That means people getting laid off can find jobs quickly, without having to file for unemployment benefits — a sign of a very strong labor market. The downside is that increases the odds of the Fed continuing to raise interest rates to cool the economy down.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
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[post_content] => It’s hard to believe, but we are less than two months away from midterm elections in early November. Given all the well-known worries this year — from inflation to the war in Ukraine, the economy to the bear market — most investors haven’t started to think about midterms quite yet. But we expect that to change as this important date nears.
Key Points for the Week
- Midterm elections are less than two months away, so expect talk about potential impact to heat up.
- Midterm election years tend to be rough for stocks, but markets typically improve in the last quarter and into the following year.
- Consumers are seeing some relief as gas prices fall, which should soften inflation numbers.
- Unemployment claims data suggest the labor market remains strong.
Source: Carson Investment Research, YCharts 09/09/22
The bottom line is 2022 hasn’t been fun for investors. But it’s important to remember we’ve seen this before and there’s reason to expect better days ahead.
How Will the Election Results Impact Markets?
Investors often want to know which sectors will do well if one or the other party wins an election. Here’s the truth: It isn’t that simple. After President Donald Trump won in 2016, many investors expected steel, coal, and financials to do well, and technology to struggle. The opposite happened. When President Joe Biden won in 2020, the consensus was renewable energy would do well while coal and refiners would struggle. Again, the opposite happened. While there may be some value in following election results, be careful not to blindly follow the crowd’s expectations.
Midterm elections are not typically favorable for the party in power. Since World War II, the controlling party has lost four seats in the Senate and 26 seats in the House on average. This year, Republicans only need five seats to flip the House and most strategists think this is quite possible. The Senate is split 50/50, but the open Senate seats are closely contested and considered a coin flip by many. What does this mean for investors? The best scenario for stocks is a Democratic president and Republican-controlled Congress (this was the case in the late 1990s under President Bill Clinton). A Democratic president with a split Congress has also generated solid returns in the past. Both scenarios suggest post-November, history will be with the bulls.
On this subject, we prefer to take a broader view and share another important takeaway for investors. From the date of the midterm election going out one-year, the S&P 500 has been higher every single time since World War II. Not all years were up significantly, but a consistent gain and an average of 14.1% is worth noting.
Consumer Confidence is Rising as Gas Prices Fall
It’s as simple as that, as the chart below illustrates.
Consumer confidence started falling in the summer of 2021 as gas prices climbed. Granted, the economy faced other challenges last summer, such as the spread of the COVID Delta variant. But the nationwide average gas price crossed the $3.0/gallon mark in May 2021 and rose steadily over the remainder of the year. All the while, consumer confidence moved lower, despite COVID fading into the background and economic data improving.
Then, at the end of February 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent commodity markets into a frenzy and surging global oil prices pushed gas prices above $4/gallon. March-April saw some relief, but issues with refining capacity in the U.S. sent gas prices to $5.0/gallon by mid-June. That was a 63% increase in one year. No wonder the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit a record low of 50.0 in June. That’s lower than the start of the pandemic in March 2020 (72.3) and the depths of the financial crisis in 2008 (55.3). Even the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey, which is typically tied to the strength of the labor market, fell significantly, from 118 in April 2021 to 95 in July.
But over the last four to eight weeks, sentiment indicators have picked up again just as gas prices have seen a steep fall, from $5/gallon to about $3.75.
Consumer confidence tells us how consumers are feeling about the economy. And this is important because 70% of the U.S. economy is made up of consumer spending. Confident consumers can potentially fuel more spending and economic growth. On the other hand, if consumers are feeling down, they may save rather than spend, especially if they feel that poor economic conditions will eventually impact their personal finances.
The Federal Reserve considers consumer sentiment, and especially consumer expectations for inflation, an important indicator. Fed members fear that rising inflation expectations will keep inflation higher for longer. The idea is if consumers expect more inflation, they will ask for higher wage increases, which will result in more spending and put upward pressure on prices, leading to a cycle of “spiraling inflation.” Now, inflation expectations rose over the past year, along with gas prices. But there is some good news as far as the Fed is concerned: Long-term inflation expectations (over the next five years) have fallen to 2.9%, and that is right at the three-decade average for this metric.
Moreover, recent unemployment claims data suggest the labor market remains strong. Unemployed workers who are continuing to collect unemployment benefits now make up 1% of the labor force, which is a record low. This is not something we would expect if the economy were in a recession.
Combine a strong labor market with easing price pressure, and we believe consumer confidence should continue rising as we head into the fall. This should give the Fed some breathing room as it increases rates to fight inflation, with slightly less risk of pushing the economy into a recession.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Compliance Case #01484392
[post_title] => Market Commentary: The Election is Near
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[post_content] => It continues to be a challenging year for stocks, but all is not lost. We believe there could be some decisive gains before year-end. Let’s look back at two other midterm years that were similar to 2022 in more ways than one.
- Historically, similar bad starts to midterm election years have been followed by stock market rallies late in the year.
- More than 3.5 million jobs have been created over the first eight months of 2022, which is not typical of a recession.
- September is no doubt a volatile and historically weak month. So, buckle up.
- Supply chains are improving and gas prices are falling, signs that inflation has likely peaked in the U.S. Consumer confidence is also rising amid falling gas prices.
A Positive Employment Report, In More Ways Than One
Good news did arrive last week in the form of the August employment report. This initially buoyed equities until news that Russia is cutting off gas supplies for Europe rocked markets late Friday — a reminder that global events can cause higher volatility over the short run. The economy created 315,000 jobs in August. Since these numbers can be revised, it’s more useful to look at the average over the last three months — job growth averaged 378,000 each month between June and August. The bigger picture is the economy has created 3.5 million jobs this year, and there are five months left to go. Average annual job growth since 1940 is about 1.5 million; 2.3 million when recessions are excluded. This is a very strong labor market.
The August report also showed the unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7%. In his Jackson Hole speech last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is focused on getting inflation down to its 2% target but that will involve bringing pain to households and businesses. So, are we starting to see signs of the pain Powell mentioned?
Not really. The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed persons (those who are looking for a job) by the size of the labor force (employed + unemployed). In August, the ranks of unemployed increased but not because more people were laid off. It was because more people came back into the labor force and started looking for jobs. This is a good sign because it points to a more attractive labor market, certainly not something seen in a recession.
The connection between employment and prices is wage growth, at least as the Fed sees it. And there is good reason for this. Inflation can be impacted by several factors, including global oil, food prices, and supply-chain disruptions — as we’re all familiar with at this point. Stripping out the goods impacted by these sorts of factors leaves us with services inflation. This is what the Fed is really concerned about, and historically in the U.S., strong wage growth has led to higher services inflation.
But there was good news on this front, too. Average hourly earnings for private sector workers rose about 4% (at an annualized rate) in August, which is slower than the 5% rate it has averaged over the past year. It appears to be moving closer to the pre-crisis wage growth rate of about 3%.
Slower wage growth is not great news if you are employed, especially considering the high levels of inflation. Falling gas prices are providing some relief; but from the Fed’s perspective, the best news in the August payroll report was that wage growth slowed.
Many economists believe that for wage growth to slow, job openings have to fall — leading to slower employment gains and, ultimately, higher unemployment. So far, that’s not happening.
Wage growth has slowed despite job openings remaining extremely elevated. Job openings listed by employers are running twice as high as the number of unemployed workers. Before the pandemic the ratio was about 1.2:1, i.e., 12 jobs listed for every 10 unemployed workers. Now it’s 2:1. Employment gains slowed in August, but it was always unlikely that job growth would continue running at half a million a month. Moreover, layoffs remain at record lows. All this is exactly the opposite of what would be expected.
While it’s hard to pinpoint an exact reason, a significant factor may be that the economy is continuing to normalize after two years of massive pandemic-related shifts. The pandemic prompted workers to quit their jobs at a much higher rate. Some termed this the “Great Resignation,” but it was really the “Great Job Switch.” Workers did not quit their jobs to stop work. Instead, they quit to take another job — and, importantly, one with higher pay. Over the 12 months through July, “job switchers” saw wage gains of 6.7% on average, compared to 4.9% for “job stayers.”
As the economy normalizes, this trend is reversing. Quits have fallen 7% since November, with most of that decline occurring over the past four months. That may be why wage growth is falling without unemployment rising in a significant way.
That would be the ideal case for the Fed and the economy. If wage growth continues to fall, that is a good sign for the services part of inflation. It also means the Fed would not have to increase rates too much further. And if all that happens on the back of fewer quits as opposed to rising unemployment, that would indeed be the best case.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 INDEX
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
MSCI ACWI INDEX
The MSCI ACWI captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) and 23 emerging markets (EM) countries*. With 2,480 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.
Compliance Case #01478809
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[post_content] => The S&P 500 recently soared more than 17% off its June 16 lows but found trouble near its 200-day moving average. This is perfectly normal, as stocks might need to catch their breath before the next move higher. That is the good news. The bad news is the calendar is doing no one any favors and more volatility could be in store.
- September is historically one of the weakest months of the year for stocks, so buckle up.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed remains committed to bringing inflation down to its target 2%, which means we are going to see more rate hikes.
- Market breadth remains quite strong; this could bode well for a continuation of the rally by year-end.
So, why is September so poor for stocks? There are many theories. One is big traders finally get back from the Hamptons after Labor Day and begin to sell. The other is many hedge funds and institutions have their year-end in October, so they sell for tax reasons. Of course, we could ask why they don’t just sell in October, but we’ll leave that for another day. The bottom line is investors need to understand that seasonality plays a part in the overall cycle of the stock market, and this September could be rocky and volatile. But take one more look at the chart above. Some of the best months of the year are coming up, so a little more pain for some nice end-of-year gain might not be so bad.
The Fed Will Keep At It Until the Job is Done
So said Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his much-awaited Jackson Hole Economic Symposium speech. The “job” in this case refers to getting inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target, which is really about achieving price stability, as Powell and company see it. In their view, without price stability the economy will not be able to achieve a sustained period of strong employment. However, there will be unfortunate costs. Powell admitted that getting inflation back to target will bring pain to households and businesses, which are already struggling with higher interest rates, below-trend economic growth, and softer labor market conditions. But failing to restore price stability would be worse.
The Fed lifted interest rates by 200 basis points over just three months, taking it to the 2.25-2.5% range (1 basis point or 1 bps = 0.01%). After the July meeting, Powell said Fed members thought rates had reached a moderately restrictive level. And at the Jackson Hole meeting, Powell added that getting inflation back to target will require sufficiently restrictive policy for quite some time.
Translation: The Fed is going to continue raising rates and will keep them there for a while.
The pace of interest rate hikes will eventually slow, but the level of rates will stay higher for longer. At the same time, data dependency means markets will parse each data point for clues as to how high they will go and how long they will stay there.
Last week the PCE price index report (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) showed prices falling 0.1% in July. Core PCE, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, was also much lower than expected, rising just 0.1%. This is welcome news, but Powell was clear that one month of improvement is not enough. Inflation may continue to ease over the next few months, as pandemic-impacted services, such as airfares and hotel prices, and vehicle prices exert a deflationary force on inflation. If that happens, the question is how much softening would the Fed need to see before backing off its current path? Therein lies the uncertainty.
Let’s Leave on Some Good News
The Fed, inflation, the economy, and war in Eastern Europe are just a few of the many issues for investors to worry about. But a very strong technical development occurred recently that might bring some calm to the myriad of concerns.
Market breadth, defined simply, is how many stocks are going up or down at one time. In a solid bull market, many stocks must participate for the move to have lasting power. Additionally, breadth tends to lead price, so if many stocks are performing well (strong market breadth), then the odds favor the overall indexes to follow suit.
Now for the good news. The S&P 500 advance/decline line recently made a new all-time high. An advance/decline line is simply how many stocks are going up versus down each day, which is then tallied up over time. What investors need to know is new highs in breadth can often signal new highs in the overall index. The chart below shows the last seven times this indicator made a new high for the first time after a period (four months) of no new highs. Although some periods of weakness followed initially, after one year stocks were higher every single time, up 15.6% on average.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 INDEX
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
MSCI ACWI INDEX
The MSCI ACWI captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) and 23 emerging markets (EM) countries*. With 2,480 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.
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[post_content] => Stocks had another rough week. The S&P 500 flirted with the June lows and swung back into bear market territory. Investors are worried about inflation, the Fed, the economy, the Russia-Ukraine war, among other market challenges.
- The market is experiencing peak bearishness.
- This coincides with peak hawkishness from the Federal Reserve, as it projects more interest rate hikes.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns that putting inflation behind us may not be painless.
- A down swing in inflation could prompt the Fed to pause.
The Fed is strongly committed to bringing inflation back down, and Fed members believe that is the key to sustaining a healthy economy and labor market over the long term. However, they also believe there is no painless way to do it, and that was a big takeaway from the meeting. It’s worth quoting Fed Chair Powell in full:
“We’re never going to say that there are too many people working, but the real point is that people are really suffering from inflation. If we want another period of a very strong labor market, we have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t.”
This came across in the Fed’s latest economic projections. It slashed estimates of 2022 GDP growth from 1.7% to 0.2%, and for 2023, from 1.7% to 1.2%. The Fed now expects unemployment to peak at 4.4% in 2023, up from the June projection of 3.9% (the rate is currently 3.7%). That translates to about 1.2 million more people losing their jobs.
Up until June, central bankers were clearly hoping to get away with small upticks in the unemployment rate, i.e., a “soft landing.” No longer. The latest projections basically amount to a recession, although perhaps, a mild one. The problem is once unemployment starts to rise, it’s not exactly easy to cap it at a particular number.
Are There Any Positives At All?
Powell did lay out a scenario for a soft landing. It’s a challenging path, but not implausible in our view.
- The labor market is currently imbalanced, with demand outrunning supply. But job vacancies (representing demand) are at such a high level that they could potentially fall without much of an increase in unemployment. However, this would be a big break from what we’ve seen in the past, as falling vacancies have typically been associated with more layoffs. Also, workers quit their jobs at a much higher rate after the pandemic (for better-paying jobs), but that’s slowing down now. If this continues, it should also ease the supply-demand imbalance and associated wage pressures.
- Inflation expectations, both amongst consumers and market participants, have been well anchored. That means there’s no expectations-related inflation spiral. This occurs when people expect higher prices in the future, so they buy now to get ahead of inflation and, in turn, drive up prices.
- The current inflation has been partly caused by a series of supply shocks, beginning with the pandemic and the economic reopening, and amplified by the Russia-Ukraine war. These weren’t present in prior business cycles. Of course, the Fed expected to see supply-side healing by now, but it hasn’t happened yet.
Of course, this assumes there are no more shocks, such as the Russia-Ukraine war presented. That really is the key, as a convincing deceleration in prices is required for the Fed to pivot away from its current aggressive stance.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
Compliance Case #01497141
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[post_content] => Optimizing your Social Security benefits can have a big impact on your quality of life in retirement.
Carson’s Senior Wealth Planner Ryan Yamada hosted the webinar How to Optimize Social Security, which is now available on-demand.
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[post_content] => You probably have questions on the newly signed into law Inflation Reduction Act. You hear about it on the news and wonder what impact it can potentially have on the market – and your wallet. Get your questions answered in our webinar on the Inflation Reduction Act, now available on-demand.
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[post_content] => Watch this webinar hosted by Carson’s Matt Lewis, Vice President, Insurance, as he dives into the Medicare.
[post_title] => Maximizing Medicare: A Strategic Approach to Health Care in Retirement
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[post_content] => Kevin Engbers CFP®, Founder and Wealth Advisor, uncovers our firm’s deepest belief — that wealth isn’t wealth by finances alone.
We believe in True Wealth.
What is “True Wealth,” you ask?
It’s a four (4) pillared version of wealth that covers all aspects of your life — beyond simply your financial situation.
The video covers it better than we can in words.
We would love to discuss this in-depth with you and help you discover your own version of “True Wealth.” Contact us for a complimentary consultation: https://www.pinnaclewealth.com/#contact
*******
FOR MORE VIDEOS LIKE THIS, PLEASE SUBSCRIBE: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCndhK4pEl35_4UkhkntGhDQ/?sub_confirmation=1
Discover “True Wealth”: https://www.pinnaclewealth.com
Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PinnacleWealthSD
Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pinnacle-wealth-management---sd/
********
COMPLEMENTARY RESOURCES:
Take our retirement ready quiz: https://www.pinnaclewealth.com/retirement-planning-quiz/
Do you know your risk profile? Learn more: https://www.pinnaclewealth.com/#survey-section
ROTH IRA vs. Traditional IRA quiz: https://www.pinnaclewealth.com/calculator-roth-ira-traditional-ira/
********
Pinnacle Wealth is a Sioux Falls, SD based full service wealth management firm focusing on comprehensive financial planning and the utilization of all financial tools at our disposal to work in concert toward achieving your goals.
But we feel the more important question to ask is “Why do we offer these financial tools?” rather than “What financial tools do we offer?”
We seek to reduce your financial distractions by taking care of the painstaking details, freeing you to relax, live confidently, and enjoy life. Every financial process or strategy we consider or implement should answer your questions, raise your financial awareness or reduce the number of surprises you experience. To succeed we must carefully listen and understand your financial goals, concerns and even fears and provide potential solutions.
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[post_content] => Choosing a financial advisor is a big decision, and one that we understand isn’t taken lightly. And with so many choices, why choose us?
Wealth Advisor Nik Aamlid sits down to talk about what sets Pinnacle apart from the rest. And we’ll give you a hint; it’s not about flashy gimmicks or short-term gains.
Pinnacle is all about building relationships, offering coaching, and accountability to help you reach your goals. Learn more about what sets us apart by connecting with our team here: https://bit.ly/3w0JW5q
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Videos
Videos
How to Optimize Social Security
Posted on September 19, 2022
Optimizing your Social Security benefits can have a big impact on your quality of life in retirement. Carson’s Senior Wealth Planner Ryan Yamada hosted the webinar How to Optimize Social Security, which is now available on-demand.
Continue Reading! Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
Posted on September 9, 2022
Maximizing Medicare: A Strategic Approach to Health Care in Retirement
Posted on August 22, 2022
Our Definition of “True Wealth”
Posted on August 19, 2022
Why Pinnacle Wealth?
Posted on August 8, 2022
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[post_date] => 2022-05-26 08:18:44
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[post_content] => By Erin Wood, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning and Advanced Solutions
Just a few years ago, Rose retired with a decent-sized 401(k). With some careful budgeting and a part-time job, her retirement finances were on track. Rose was looking forward to traveling, reigniting her passion for photography and spending time with her son and her grandkids.
The pandemic changed everything. Her son contracted COVID-19 in the early days of the pandemic. His health deteriorated quickly and he died at only 35 years old. He didn’t have life insurance. A gig worker without a 401(k), he had very minimal retirement savings.
Rose’s grandchildren, ages 2 and 6, joined the more than 140,000 U.S. children under the age of 18 who lost their primary or secondary caregiver due to the pandemic from April 2020 through June 2021. That’s approximately one out of every 450 children under age 18 in the United States.
Rose’s ex-daughter-in-law battles drug addiction and had lost custody of the kids during the divorce, so Rose became the children’s primary caregiver. She quickly discovered that caring for young children as an older adult is more physically challenging than when she raised her son, so she made the difficult decision to leave her part-time job to have the energy to care for her active grandchildren. She wants to do everything for these kids who have lost so much — but it puts her financial security at risk.
Sadly, she is far from alone.
Read the full article
[post_title] => COVID’s Financial Toll Isn’t What You Think
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[post_content] => By: Erin Wood, CFP®, CRPC®, FBS®, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning, Carson Group
Laura and Caroline are in their late 50s. Friends since meeting at a playgroup for their toddlers, both were in long-term, seemingly happy marriages. Laura married her high school sweetheart right after they graduated from college and worked as an RN while her husband attended medical school. When their first child was born, Laura decided to become a stay-at-home parent. She just celebrated sending her last child off to college and was looking forward to enjoying an empty nest with her husband.
Already established in her career as an accountant for a large insurance firm, Caroline married a bit later, at 33. Today, she’s a financial controller for the same firm. Her spouse owns his own landscaping business. Caroline is the high-wage earner in the family.
Unfortunately, both women are now surprised to be facing a “gray” divorce: a divorce involving couples in their 50s or older. Each will need to make some tough choices as they deal with the emotional devastation of unraveling a long-term marriage. Although my focus as a financial planner is to help my clients find their financial footing during and after divorce, I also encourage clients to build a strong network of family and friends as well as a therapist or clergy person to offer critical emotional support during this time.
Read full article on Kiplinger.com
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[post_date] => 2020-01-28 10:38:21
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[post_content] => By Jamie Hopkins
Roth conversions can be a powerful tax and retirement planning technique. The idea behind most Roth conversions is to take money from an IRA and convert it to a Roth IRA. Essentially, you’re paying taxes today instead of paying taxes in the future.
The Tax Cut and Jobs Act lowered taxes for many Americans and with the SECURE Act Roth IRAs became even more powerful as an estate planning vehicle to minimize taxes, so it’s a convenient time to take advantage of Roth conversions. However, Roth conversions can come with some issues. Before you engage in one, be aware of these common problems as it can be hard to undo the transaction.
Conversions After 72
IRAs and Roth IRAs are both retirement accounts. It’s easy to assume Roth Conversions are best suited for retirement, too. However, waiting too long to do conversions can actually make the entire process more challenging.
If you own an IRA, it’s subject to required minimum distribution rules once you turn 72, as long as you had not already reached age 70.5 by the end of 2019. The government wants you to start withdrawing money from your IRA each year and pay taxes on the tax-deferred money. However, Roth IRAs aren’t subject to RMDs at age 72.
If you don’t need the money from your RMD to support your retirement spending, you might think, “I should convert this to a Roth IRA so it can stay in a tax-deferred account longer.” Unfortunately, that won’t work. You can’t roll over or convert RMDs for a given year. So, if you owe a RMD in 2020, you need to take it and you cannot convert it to a Roth IRA.
Despite the fact you can’t convert an RMD, it doesn’t mean you can’t do Roth conversions after age 72. However, you need to make sure you get your RMD out before you do a conversion. Your first distributions from an IRA after 72 will be treated as RMD money first. This means, if you want to convert $10,000 from your IRA, but you also owe an $8,000 RMD for the year, you need to take the full $8,000 out before you do a conversion.
Full article on Forbes
For a comprehensive review of your personal situation, always consult with a tax or legal advisor. Neither Cetera Advisor Networks LLC nor any of its representatives may give legal or tax advice."
"Distributions from traditional IRAs and employer sponsored retirement plans are taxed as ordinary income and, if taken prior to reaching age 59½, may be subject to an additional 10% IRS tax penalty. Converting from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA is a taxable event. A Roth IRA offers tax free withdrawals on taxable contributions. To qualify for the tax-free and penalty-free withdrawal of earnings, a Roth IRA must be in place for at least five tax years, and the distribution must take place after age 59½ or due to death, disability, or a first time home purchase (up to a $10,000 lifetime maximum). Depending on state law, Roth IRA distributions may be subject to state taxes.
[post_title] => 3 Roth Conversion Traps To Avoid After The SECURE Act
[post_excerpt] => Roth conversions can be a powerful tax and retirement planning technique. The idea behind most Roth conversions is to take money from an IRA and convert it to a Roth IRA. Essentially, you’re paying taxes today instead of paying taxes in the future.
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[post_date] => 2019-12-06 10:26:33
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[post_content] => By Jamie Hopkins
People plan on having a good day, a good year, a good retirement and a good life. But why stop there? Why not plan for a good end of life, too?
End of life or estate planning is about getting plans in place to manage risks at the end of your life and beyond. And while it might be uncomfortable to discuss or plan for the end, everyone knows that no one will live forever.
Estate planning and end of life planning are about taking control of your situation. Death and long-term care later in life might be hard to fathom right now, but we can’t put off planning out of fear of the unknown or because it’s unpleasant. Sometimes it takes a significant event like a health scare to shake us from our procrastination. Don’t wait for life to happen to you, though.
Full article on Kiplinger
[post_title] => 10 Common Estate Planning Mistakes (and How to Avoid Them)
[post_excerpt] => Estate planning and end of life planning are about taking control of your situation. Death and long-term care later in life might be hard to fathom right now, but we can’t put off planning out of fear of the unknown or because it’s unpleasant. Don’t wait for life to happen to you, though.
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[post_content] => By Jamie Hopkins
Everyone’s heard the stories of celebrities who died without a proper estate plan in place. It’s been a hot topic in the last few years with Prince and Aretha Franklin serving as unfortunate faces of the phenomenon. But it’s not just freewheeling entertainers. Abraham Lincoln – a lawyer by trade – didn’t have one either, which leads me to say something you’ve probably never heard anyone say: don’t be like Abraham Lincoln.
Most people want to plan for a good life and a good retirement, so why not plan for a good end of life, too? Let’s look at four ways you can refine your estate plan, protect your assets and create a level of control and certainty for your loved ones.
1. Review Beneficiary Designations
Many accounts can pass to heirs and loved ones without having to go through the sometimes costly and time-consuming process of probate. For instance, life insurance contracts, 401(k)s and IRAs can be transferred through beneficiary designations – meaning you determine who you want to inherit your accounts after you die by filing out a beneficiary form. You can often name successors or backup beneficiaries, and even split up accounts by dollar amount or percentages between beneficiaries with these forms.
Full article on Forbes
[post_title] => 4 Ways To Improve Your Estate Plan
[post_excerpt] => Most people want to plan for a good life and a good retirement, so why not plan for a good end of life, too? Let’s look at four ways you can refine your estate plan, protect your assets and create a level of control and certainty for your loved ones.
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[post_content] => By Erin Wood, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning and Advanced Solutions
Just a few years ago, Rose retired with a decent-sized 401(k). With some careful budgeting and a part-time job, her retirement finances were on track. Rose was looking forward to traveling, reigniting her passion for photography and spending time with her son and her grandkids.
The pandemic changed everything. Her son contracted COVID-19 in the early days of the pandemic. His health deteriorated quickly and he died at only 35 years old. He didn’t have life insurance. A gig worker without a 401(k), he had very minimal retirement savings.
Rose’s grandchildren, ages 2 and 6, joined the more than 140,000 U.S. children under the age of 18 who lost their primary or secondary caregiver due to the pandemic from April 2020 through June 2021. That’s approximately one out of every 450 children under age 18 in the United States.
Rose’s ex-daughter-in-law battles drug addiction and had lost custody of the kids during the divorce, so Rose became the children’s primary caregiver. She quickly discovered that caring for young children as an older adult is more physically challenging than when she raised her son, so she made the difficult decision to leave her part-time job to have the energy to care for her active grandchildren. She wants to do everything for these kids who have lost so much — but it puts her financial security at risk.
Sadly, she is far from alone.
Read the full article
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In the News
In the News
COVID’s Financial Toll Isn’t What You Think
Posted on May 26, 2022
By Erin Wood, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning and Advanced Solutions Just a few years ago, Rose retired with a decent-sized 401(k). With some careful budgeting and a part-time job, her retirement finances were on track. Rose was looking forward to traveling, reigniting her passion …
Continue Reading! Emerging Financially Healthy After a Gray Divorce
Posted on March 25, 2022
3 Roth Conversion Traps To Avoid After The SECURE Act
Posted on January 28, 2020
10 Common Estate Planning Mistakes (and How to Avoid Them)
Posted on December 6, 2019
4 Ways To Improve Your Estate Plan
Posted on November 11, 2019
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